Fixed Wing Sensing of Washington (WA) Δ 11th of April 2018 Ω 8:11 AM

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~ Boeing ~ Boeing eyes delivery of 1,580 aircraft to Middle East in 20 years ~ 737 Max cockpit	~ Passanger Plane Autonomy by Boeing ~ Astronics ~ sense for Ξ	~ sense for Ξ ~ sense for Ξ ~ sense for Ξ
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«Fixed Wing Sensing of U.S.	Θ	Θ
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~ Boeing

Boeing Exec Forecasts Huge Growth, End of Duopoly
The current duopoly in the aircraft industry is on the verge of breaking up and
bringing in a third competitor.
Going forward, Boeing, Airbus and other suppliers will look to balance supply and demand
as the industry braces for the global fleet to nearly double within the next 20 years,
according to the latest Boeing Current Market Outlook (CMO).
This could result in a major shift to the traditional way of doing business in the industry.

Embraer is choosing to compete just below us.
The CSeries is trying to take Boeing and Airbus head on, and that is not working too well for them.

But I think China and some of those other countries have great potential
because of the demand in those markets, and
the fact is that I think they will invest over the long term to be successful,”
said Boeing’s Vice President of Marketing, Randy Tinseth,
speaking at the Merrill Lynch Global Industrials & EU Autos Broker Conference on March 16.

“So, we know that new competition is coming.
We know that there will be a successful third competitor.
I look at [the market and] there is room for us to grow,
there is room for Airbus to grow, and there is room for that third competitor.”
Tinseth sees the global need for fleet growth driving a strong aviation ecosystem in 2016,
with market growth striking out above that of world economies.

“As we look at 2016 we see a world where economic growth will probably be around 2.7 percent again,
but passenger traffic will more than likely grow in excess of 6 percent,” said Tinseth.

“That has been helping to drive the top line of our customers in terms of revenue.
It has also created a market where our customers have been very successful.”

This uptick in passenger traffic, coupled with lower oil and fuel prices,
earned airlines profits an estimated $33 billion in 2015,
with U.S. airlines seeing most of that revenue.

Moreover, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has forecasted a 10 percent increase in airline profits for 2016,
climbing to $36 billion with more than half of the profit stemming from U.S. carriers.
“The growth that we saw in this market is clearly being stimulated by an ever-growing middle class.
It is being stimulated by new business models that are creating themselves or
opening up in new markets such as low-cost carriers in Asia, and
the success of the sixth freedom carriers in the Middle East,” said Tinseth,
referring to Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways,
flydubai and Emirates
which are seeing healthy if not blossoming numbers of passenger traffic.

“We have also seen above-trend growth in the market because of lower fuel price,
which has meant that airlines can go to the market and open up new routes
that can be profitable today that weren't profitable in the past.”
He believes the air travel market has seen an additional 1 percent increase as a result of lower oil prices.

According to Tinseth, Boeing projects that about 58 percent of long-term demand for new aircraft
will be ordered by airlines to grow fleet size in order to accommodate rising passenger traffic.
Airlines will require the remaining 42 percent of new aircraft to replace aging models that are currently in service.

“The biggest growth markets will continue to be in Asia and the developing and emerging economies of the world,
while the biggest replacement markets will be in Europe,
the United States, and countries such as Australia and Japan,” said Tinseth.

The Boeing executive points out that nearly 700 single-aisle airplanes flying today
are more than 25 years old, creating an opportunity for 700 airplanes to be retired, and
therefore replaced, in the next few years.
This could translate to potentially 200 to 300 retirements per year over the next several years.

“When you look at a single-aisle airplane,
about half the airplanes are retired by the time they get to 23 to 25 years old.
And that has been relatively constant.
When you look at wide-body aircraft, that number is a couple of years earlier than that, s
omewhere between 21 and 23 years.

So what is interesting when we think about retirement,
it is not so much the efficiency of the aircraft or the fuel price at the time,
it is really about where you are in its lifecycle in terms of the capability of the airplane,
where you are in terms of your maintenance cycle,
as well as where you are in terms of the interior and having to either refurbish it or not,” Tinseth said.

He anticipates slightly lower numbers from other segments of the aircraft market.
Pointing to an estimated 300-widebody aircraft in the global fleet
that airlines will be looking to replace in coming years.
Meanwhile, cargo operators will need to replace between 200 to 220 large freighters
between 2019 and into the middle of that next decade.

To keep pace with growing demand, Boeing delivered 762 aircraft in 2015 and
remains on track to deliver slightly lower numbers in 2016, between 740 and 745 aircraft,
in an effort to cut back on the company’s backlog of 5,800 aircraft, valued at an estimated $430 billion.

“One of the challenges that we have moving forward has been to make sure that we work very hard to burn down our backlog.
That is why our production rates have been going up and
that is why they will continue to go up as we move into the future,” Tinseth said,
referring to recently announced production increases for the 737 jetliner
from its current 42 aircraft per month to 57 airplanes per month in 2019.

The company is also expecting to raise its production rates for the 787 from 10 to 12 aircraft per month beginning this summer.

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~ Boeing eyes delivery of 1,580 aircraft to Middle East in 20 years

Boeing eyes delivery of 1,580 aircraft to Mideast in 20 years
ξ 1580 new airplanes worth $260 billion by 2026
ξ $3.2 trillion investments for 29,400 airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years

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~ 737 Max cockpit

737 Max cockpit
four large displays provide a window to the avionics systems and access to critical flight information for pilots
Rockwell Collins developed displays
a backlog of 3,000 orders exists for the Max
replaced, revised and relocated 23 displays and controls
compared to the previous Next Generation version of the airplane, everything is in the same location
to keep the functionality and familiarity of the flight controls very similar to the 737 NG
new capability: the vertical situation display that is going to be available on the navigation display
that enables the pilots to see not only a guideline view of their flight path,
but it also now allows them to look at a profile view and they can compare that to their terrain
Network File Server (NFS) and Digital Flight Data Acquisition Unit (eDFDAU) act as a centralized data collection system
that connects the aircraft in-flight to airline operations teams on the ground

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~ Passanger Plane Autonomy by Boeing

Passanger Plane Autonomy by Boeing
ξ current researching
ξ future research focuses on three areas
ξ 1) autonomous taxi and flight control technology
ξ 2) machine learning and
ξ 3) high-integrity systems
ξ demand for 41,030 aircraft over the next 20 years
ξ creating a market worth $6.1 trillion
ξ a healthy market for Boeing and its competitors
ξ need for increasing the level of autonomy and machine learning within passenger-carrying aircraft
ξ in a more advanced way than the autonomy featured on Boeing passenger-carrying aircraft today

ξ need for not only newer and more fuel-efficient aircraft, but also for pilots — 617,000 of them
ξ there are not enough new pilots in training today to fulfill that need
ξ a future possibility where there simply aren’t enough pilots to operate all of the aircraft on all of the flights
ξ need to ensure the same levels of safety in passenger flight operations that are available today

ξ automotive fatalities have increased by 14% since 2014 to 40,000 fatalities in 2016
ξ several automotive manufacturers are currently researching self-driving cars to combat this statistic
ξ comparatively, there were no deaths that occurred on scheduled air transportation flights in 2016

ξ Boeing is looking at how to safely introduce increased levels of autonomy safely,
ξ in a way that would match the levels of safety that have already been established in the industry today

ξ Boeing is researching autonomous taxiing technology at airports in the Puget Sound region of Seattle

ξ for autonomous planes have to figure out how to provide the airplane information to provide the information
ξ that the airplane needs to understand where it is and where everything is around it
ξ that means you have to have a significant amount of sensor fusion in there
ξ visual sensors, fused with data on the airplane, ADS-B In information,
ξ Traffic Collision Avoidance System info,
ξ combined with own-ship info and visual cues with a camera system all integrated together

ξ machine learning is another autonomous technology that Boeing is researching right now as well
ξ the focus around machine learning is a major shift in thinking for Boeing and commercial airplanes,
ξ which primarily feature deterministic systems that act in a one input/one output structure

ξ currently, Boeing’s research and development division has inserted a machine-learning algorithm into its flight simulators
ξ that is focused on making flight operational decisions and
ξ learning from the outcomes of each of those decisions
ξ as the algorithm continues to learn about decisions progressively,
ξ it would eventually be ready to control an actual airplane

ξ have that algorithm on an airplane operating in an unclosed loop environment,
ξ just understanding the decision what the machine made
ξ and what that decision would have led to on the actual airplane

ξ trying to increase its understanding of the role pilots play in an aircraft from a safety perspective
ξ their assumption about faults that occur in aircraft avionics,
ξ along with fault responses and failure mode effects
ξ where a flight crew steps in to keep something bad from occurring, is a specific focus

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~ Astronics

»Astronics

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