Rotary Wing Sensing of Virginia Δ 12th of January 2014 Ω 11:42 PM

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~ sense for Ξ ~ The American Helicopter Society (AHS) ~ Modernizing the Army's Rotary-Wing Aviation Fleet	~ Army's Utility Helicopter by CBO ~ Joint Heavy Lift Rotorcraft and FCS ~ Attack/Reconnaissance Helicopters	~ Joint Multi-Role Rotorcraft (JMR) ~ sense for Ξ ~ sense for Ξ
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«Rotary Wing Sensing of U.S.	Θ	Θ
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~ The American Helicopter Society (AHS)

»The American Helicopter Society (AHS)

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~ Modernizing the Army's Rotary-Wing Aviation Fleet

»Modernizing the Army's Rotary-Wing Aviation Fleet

Preface
The United States Army’s rotary-wing aviation fleet numbers about 3,500 aircraft
including utility, cargo, attack, and reconnaissance helicopters.
Between now and 2030, the Army is planning to modernize the fleet to sustain and improve its capabilities, a task the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates will have an average cost of about $3.3 billion per year,
substantially more than the $2.2 billion per year average the Army spent on such programs over the past 20 years.
This CBO paper was prepared at the request of Congressman Curt Weldon, then-Chairman,
and Congressman Neil Abercrombie, current Chairman and past Ranking Member of what is
now the Air and Land Forces Subcommittee of the House Committee on Armed Services.
The paper analyzes the costs and the capabilities of the Army’s planned rotary-wing aviation
fleet and offers four alternative approaches to modernizing the fleet. In keeping with CBO’s
mandate to provide objective, impartial analysis, this paper makes no recommendations.
Kevin Eveker of CBO’s National Security Division prepared the paper under the supervision
of J. Michael Gilmore and with assistance from David Arthur. David Newman of CBO’s Budget
Analysis Division prepared the cost estimates under the supervision of Sarah Jennings.
John Gordon of the RAND Corporation and personnel in the Department of the Army provided
comments. (The assistance of external participants implies no responsibility for the final
product, which rests solely with CBO.) Raymond Hall, Arlene Holen, Sarah Jennings,
Frances Lussier, and Donald B. Marron (formerly of CBO) reviewed drafts of the study.
Kate Kelly edited the manuscript, with assistance from John Skeen. Cynthia Cleveland
produced drafts of the paper. Maureen Costantino designed the cover and, with assistance
from Allan Keaton, prepared the report for publication. Lenny Skutnik produced the printed
copies, Linda Schimmel coordinated the print distribution, and Simone Thomas prepared the
electronic version for CBO’s Web site (www.cbo.gov).

Summary
Toward the end of the Cold War, the Army’s helicopter,or rotary-wing, fleet consisted of nearly 9,000 aircraft
Over the past 20 years, however, the fleet has contracted to its current strength of about 3,500 aircraft.
Despite the elimination of many older helicopters and the modernization or replacement of others,
most of the helicopters in today’s fleet already exceed or soon will reach ages greater than the Army considers practical.
The Army has embarked on a modernization plan that, by 2030, would address the aging of the fleet and introduce new capabilities
by replacing or significantly upgrading nearly every helicopter in the fleet.
By the estimate of the Congressional Budget Office , the effort would cost $3.3 billion per year,
on average, from 2007 through 2030,
significantly more than the $2.2 billion annual average the Army spent between 1986 and 2005.
If the Army had not canceled its Comanche attack/reconnaissance helicopter program in 2004,
the cost of its modernization plan could have come to nearly $4 billion per year.
The proposed higher spending comes at the same time the Army expects to invest heavily in the new Future Combat Systems (FCS) family of equipment,
and it is likely to present substantial budget challenges for Army planners.
This CBO study examines the Army’s plan to modernize
its helicopter fleet and compares that plan with four alternatives
that would either hold aviation spending to more
nearly match historical averages or shift the emphasis
toward procuring a fleet that is more consistent with plans for the FCS.
CBO’s analysis points to several general conclusions:

Short of significantly cutting the aviation force structure or accepting further aging of the fleet, there is
only a limited opportunity to reduce spending on the Army’s helicopter modernization over the next 5 to 10 years.

Under the Army’s current plan, the years of highest spending occur after 2020. When combined with the
simultaneous full-rate production of FCS equipment, that spending could be difficult to sustain if budgets
are constrained.

Alternatives that would reduce average spending on the Army’s aviation force over the long term but still
maintain current and near-term capabilities would come at the cost of sacrificing many of the expanded
capabilities anticipated in the Army’s long-term plans.

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~ Army's Utility Helicopter by CBO

»Army's Utility Helicopter by CBO
ξ The Army’s approximately 1,800 utility helicopters constitute slightly more than half of its total inventory of rotary-wing aircraft.
ξ More than 1,600 of that group are UH-60A and UH-60L Blackhawks; the rest are versions of the Vietnam-era UH-1 Huey.
ξ Near-term modernization plans for utility helicopters include upgrades to the UH-60s to improve performance and
ξ extend their service lives to well beyond 2030.
ξ The Hueys are currently being replaced with UH-72A Lakotas.

ξ After 2038, the Army plans to replace the Lakotas and the upgraded Blackhawks with the JMR.
ξ The JMR concept envisions attack/reconnaissance and utility versions based on a common design;
ξ the initial JMR variant is to be an attack aircraft

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~ Joint Heavy Lift Rotorcraft and FCS

»Joint Heavy Lift Rotorcraft and FCS
ξ The Army hopes to develop a much larger rotorcraft to support aerial maneuver tactics for units in the Future Combat Systems (FCS).
ξ JHL would replace the Chinook, which CBO estimates would begin retiring around 2030.
ξ Initial JHL goals call for an aircraft that can
ξ transport up to 29 tons—the currently anticipated weight of a vehicle in the FCS
ξ to a radius of about 500 nautical miles at speeds greater than 250 knots
ξ Because such a large increase in performance over that of current systems is likely to carry high development and procurement costs,
ξ the Army’s aviation plan calls for collaborating with the Air Force on the JHL program.
ξ The assumption is that the Air Force will pursue an aircraft with similar capabilities to replace its fleet of C-130 theater transport aircraft.
ξ CBO estimates that the development costs for the JHL will be about $14 billion over a period of 17 years.
ξ Procurement costs will depend on the number of aircraft purchased and on the production rate.
ξ To produce 500 aircraft at a rate of 32 per year, for example,
ξ CBO estimates the unit cost would average about $170 million
ξ and total procurement would come to $85 billion.

ξ Those costs can be compared with costs for current Department of Defense rotorcraft,
ξ such as the Marine Corps’s CH-53K heavy-lift helicopter and the V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor,
ξ although both have far less capability than is envisioned for the JHL.
ξ According to projection of the Naval Air Systems Command, it will cost $4 billion to develop and
ξ about $12 billion to put a fleet of 152 CH-53K aircraft into service,
ξ at a unit cost of about $77 million.
ξ Current estimates indicate that development will cost about $12 billion;
ξ procurement will cost about $41 billion; and
ξ the 456 V-22s for the Marine Corps,Navy, and Air Force will have a unit cost of $90 million

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~ Attack/Reconnaissance Helicopters

»Attack/Reconnaissance Helicopters

The Army currently operates over 1,200 attack/reconnaissance helicopters;
about 700 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and
over 500 OH-58C Kiowa and OH-58D Kiowa Warrior observation helicopters.
In the near term, the Army plans to complete conversion of its Apaches from the original A-model to the upgraded D-model, the Longbow Apache.
Current plans call for that upgrade to be followed by the so-called Longbow Apache Block III (AB3) configuration.
Also in the near term, the Army plans to replace the OH-58D with the new Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (ARH).
The unarmed OH-58C helicopters are being replaced by UH-72A Lakotas.
In the long term, the Army hopes to replace its entire attack/reconnaissance fleet with an attack version of the JMR.

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~ Joint Multi-Role Rotorcraft

»Joint Multi-Role Rotorcraft

Starting in 2023, the Army’s aviation modernization plan calls for the JMR to be developed jointly with the Marine Corps.
The JMR will replace the fleet of Longbow AB3 attack helicopters as they are retired beginning around 2030.
Subsequently, a utility version of the JMR will replace the Blackhawk as it begins to be retired around 2038, CBO estimates.
Under the current concept, the various versions of the JMR will have all of the capabilities of the Blackhawk, Apache, and ARH, with some new
capabilities based on improvements in technology that may be achieved in the coming decade.
CBO based its estimate of the cost, in the absence of definitive plans for the JMR, on the costs for the aircraft it would replace:
the Apache, Longbow Apache, and AB3; and the Blackhawk. CBO used historical costs for
those programs as a starting point to arrive at an estimate for RDT&E of $3.7 billion from 2019 to 2026.
For ,400 JMRs—enough for a one-for-one replacement of the Army’s Apaches and Blackhawks—and a full production
rate of about 200 JMRs per year, CBO estimates a unit cost for the JMR at $24 million
and a total procurement cost of about $57 billion.
For purposes of comparison, CBO estimates that the total cost of developing and purchasing the AH-64A, AH-64D, AB3, and ARH
beginning in 1973 and ending in 2024 will come to $46 billion that
the figure for the UH-60A, UH-60L, and UH-60M helicopters will be $37 billion from 1968 to 2025.
There is significant uncertainty about the capabilities, technology, and costs associated with the JMR.
As is the case for other programs that are either mostly conceptual or in the early stages of development,
there is a greater risk of cost and schedule overruns than would attend more definite designs based on proven technologies.
Although the cost estimates for the JMR consider risk to some extent, CBO expects that its estimates will change,
perhaps significantly, as the JMR is more clearly defined.

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